Investing For Retirement - Stock Market Risk

Most people think of stock market risk as the chanceGenerally, risk and reward go hand in hand. If you
that they will lose money in a particular investment.take a greater risk, you should intend for a greater
Actually, the risk of investing in the stock market fallsreward. You have to be careful though. Sometimes
into many categories. "Market risk" is the risk thatyou take a very high risk and don't get the
the entire market will go down. When that happens,opportunity for a high reward. If you want a high
most of the stocks you own will go down too. Thedegree of safety, generally, you should expect a
same is true for mutual funds. Buying shares in alllower rate of return. If you want a very high rate of
companies listed on a stock exchange does notreturn, and take the risks associated with big returns,
eliminate stock market risk. Think about it. Even ifevery once in awhile, you should expect to lose big.
you invest in "the market", you still have exposure toWe have all heard that stocks are risky in the short
the risk that "the market" will fall. The only way torun but not for the longer term. How is it possible
reduce stock market risk is to invest some of yourthat short-term stock market risk largely disappears
assets outside of the stock market. For instance,at long horizons? Where does the risk go? The
buying bonds is a good way to reduce yourswings in the rate of return that reduce long-term
vulnerability to a falling stock market; so is investing inrisk is known as "mean-reversion". It means that
real estate or art.unusually high stock returns today lower the
"Concentration risk". If you put all of your money intoexpectation of returns in the future. Bull markets
the stock of only one company, you leave yourselftend to be followed by corrections. Bear markets
wide open to both stock market risk andtend to be followed by recoveries. Stock prices
company-specific risk because all is riding on onerevert towards a long-run average or mean, and
firm's fate. This is especially common for employeesstocks are said to be "mean-reverting". Under these
of that one Company. Spreading the same moneycircumstances, stock market risk declines as your
among, say, twenty different stocks will go a longinvestment horizon lengthens because the longer
way toward reducing your portfolio's dependence onyour holding period, the closer your return will be to
any one of the companies purchased. In otherthe average.
words, simply owning many companies canDuring roaring bull markets, investors are attracted to
dramatically reduce company-specific risk. Longthe stock market by the prospect of future high
before you and I were born, some wise person said:returns, greed. They hope to earn high stock returns
"Don't put all your eggs in one basket."in the future similar to the high returns of the past. If
There is "event risk" that could affect a specificinstead, stocks mean-revert, future returns are likely
company. For example, an article could appear in theto be lower. During dramatic stock market declines,
newspaper that a company's product causes cancerindividual investors allow fear to overtake them and
or a plane crash could kill the entire managementthey sell their stocks, very often at or near the
team. There's "opportunity risk" - that means thatbottom.
you could have done something better with yourA major problem here is that you might wait too long
money. There's the "risk of inflation". This means thatbefore getting back in. You would miss out on the
your rate of return could have been lower than thegood market that invariably follows the bad market.
rate of inflation over a period of years. Even if youIt's even worse, if you allow fear of a bear market
made all the correct investment decisions, if theto keep you from ever investing in the stock market
long-term rate of inflation was the same as youragain. If you have a clear understanding of
long-term rate of return, basically, you broke even instock-market cycles, you might be more comfortable
terms of buying power.investing in bad times. When most things go on sale,
"Financial risk" can be divided into two parts. The firstmore people to want to buy. Warren Buffett said:
part is the probability of the stock declining. The"The stock market is the only business I know of,
second part is the potential magnitude of the decline.that when there is a sale, nobody comes.